Baseball's plan, which calls for "frequent" -- but not daily -- testing, quarantines only individuals who test positive, increasing the risk of spread and contravening federal guidelines that advise individuals who come in contact with a confirmed infection to quarantine for at least two weeks. Unless protective equipment and diagnostic testing become more prevalent in the coming weeks, MLB will be competing with medical providers for essential resources in some states. MLB vows it will not to siphon resources from the public. As MLB's plans took shape, health officials for big league cities were not consulted, leaving out critical decision-makers the league is counting on to execute the plan, including some empowered to shut down the sport in their communities during an emergency. Baseball says it will do so when the plan is complete. Across America, businesses, governments, schools, houses of worship -- and a few sports leagues -- are slowly working their way toward reopening, even as deaths from the coronavirus approach 100,000. As these institutions move forward, they are employing a hodgepodge of approaches that range from conservative to aggressive.
With MLB losing roughly $75 million a day, according to estimates by Patrick Rishe, director of the sports business program at Washington University in St. Louis, officials are contemplating a half-season plus expanded playoffs -- well over 1,200 games across the nation. Baseball will be engaged in a daily battle against the virus -- disinfecting baseballs, deep-cleaning clubhouses and, at least initially, banning paying customers from the ballpark.
MLB will need help from state and local health officials to address ongoing concerns in most major league cities. Currently, all but six restrict gatherings to 10 people; 11 have banned gatherings altogether. Sixteen of the league's 30 teams are still under various shelter-in-place orders. Last week, the health director for Los Angeles County -- a California hot spot and the home of the Dodgers -- said restrictions will remain in place for three more months. But California Gov. Gavin Newsom, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo and Texas Gov. Greg Abbott signaled their support this week for pro sports to return soon in those states.
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As ESPN reported last week, Halem said MLB is prepared to move teams to locations that have been reopened if state or local governments prohibit them from playing in their own cities. Although details of MLB's plan are still developing, the linchpin is diagnostic testing to ensure that thousands of people -- players, staff and other personnel -- remain uninfected.
The Harvard Global Health Institute recommends states conduct at least 152 tests per day for every 100,000 people. But only four out of the 17 states with MLB teams currently meet that standard, based on a seven-day average of testing results compiled by the COVID Tracking Project. How MLB avoids competing for desperately needed resources is shaping up as one of its biggest challenges.
Halem acknowledged that some labs are still unable to analyze tests on the scale that's needed. But he said baseball solved that problem by working with a Salt Lake City lab so that MLB can administer and analyze its own coronavirus tests without interfering with public health needs.
"We made the decision we were going to stay out of that world to not take tests away from the public," Halem said. He added that private companies assured MLB that it also will not be in competition with the health care system for much-needed personal protective equipment such as masks and gloves.
But Dr. Val Griffeth, an Oregon emergency medicine and critical-care specialist who co-founded an organization that fills shortages of personal protective equipment for medical providers, disagreed: "Every resource being used by Major League Baseball will be a resource not being used by a health care service somewhere. Unfortunately, that's the reality we live in."
In March, an MLB trial balloon to play inside a protective bubble at spring training sites deflated, in part because of the players' reluctance to be isolated for an extended period and limited broadcasting capacity. But the latest plan -- with players and other personnel free to circulate in their communities as state rules permit -- is a riskier, less certain strategy, according to health experts interviewed by ESPN. One sports executive gave MLB a 75% chance of completing the season.
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Baseball's plan designates about 100 essential employees per team -- players and other on-field personnel and "a limited number of essential staff who come in close proximity to the players." These "Tier 1" and "Tier 2" individuals will be tested multiple times per week, though the plan doesn't specify how many times that would be. The plan says nothing about regular testing for 150 "Tier 3" individuals who are involved in "essential event services" but will be separated from the others. If those people come into contact with someone who has the virus, they will be tested.
Beyond their families, teammates, managers and other baseball personnel, players still will be exposed to a broad range of people -- from hotel staff to security personnel; from bus drivers to flight attendants. All will be traveling in their own circles when not working; MLB's plan does not say anything about testing those workers. That creates added potential for an outbreak, experts said.
"One of the things I try to explain to people is that whatever other people are doing who live anywhere near you, is gonna affect you," said Diana Zuckerman, the president of the National Center for Health Research in Washington, D.C., a nonprofit independent think tank. "Just because you're not going to get a tattoo when you're in Georgia when your team is playing the Braves, if the person serving you at the restaurant is married to a person who got a tattoo or married to the person who is the tattoo artist, then you as a customer at that restaurant or even picking up carryout has the potential for being contaminated by those people who are doing those things."