US Politics XXXVIII: "Patriots" vs Reality

[U2387]

ACCIDENTAL DUPLICATE, SORRY!

 

[mikal]

Not so much. All these polls are in the margin of error, in every swing state. There are fatal flaws with the NYT poll here, as there have been with almost everything they've put out this election cycle.

If you look for example at the Harvard Institute of Politics poll of the 18-29 group in April. Among likely voters in this group, Biden is +19. His 2020 margin was +21. The NYT poll has Trump +2 with this crowd! Come ON! No one rational would believe that. Even allowing for way more Biden erosion than most surveys have found, a -23 swing from Biden to Trump is just not something I can wrap my head around! Even Carter beat Reagan by 2 with this demographic, and that was a national landslide back before the 18-29 vote was as solidly Democratic.

This very respected poll also had Gaza as 2nd to last in importance with this group, among about 12 issues. Inflation, the economy, reproductive rights and democracy are, not surprisingly to anyone rational, the top issues for them and everyone else. As BEAL said above, the left flank is quite free to think this conflict really resonates with the electorate and hurts Biden, but the data just has NOT shown that, period.

Back to the overall election, though, there are much better polls that have Biden up in enough places to get well over 270. Even these NYT and Wall Street journal polls that look to be very flawed in their weighting and assumptions, have the race very close. There is an emerging trend of Biden doing better as we move from polling "all adults" to "registered voters" to "likely voters."

Most importantly, 6 months out, any further developments aren't gonna favor Trump! As Headache says, just listen to him and look at him! He hit his peak in 2016, and he hit his RECENT, far lower peak sometime early 2024- before he stepped in and squashed the bipartisan border security bill. His signature issue, Biden and Senate DEMS/GOP strongly behind a tough bill, and he blew it up! Lots of independents were watching that.

Biden is FAR better funded. The Democratic Party far better organized. This will lead to a massive ground game/turn out operation for the poll that matters on November 5! Trump is using the RNC as a legal defense fund. Has completely taken it over. Has zero ground game! Literally zero. Swing state Republican leaders are asking for help to run a campaign- get out voters, and the response from Trump has been "I got it! Discourage early voting. Fuck turn out entirely, I've got it!" That usually goes well when he says he's got something- Atlantic City casinos, sexual assault, illegal payments to Stormy Daniels. Trump steaks. Airlines. University. COVID response. We get the idea!

The economy is still ripping along. Despite some stickiness in the last mile, there's no signs inflation will flare up. Gas prices falling will help this. Israel/Gaza, tragic and difficult as it is, it appears that Biden and other Middle East leaders have successfully prevented a broader Israel/Iran (Russia!) conflict. Maybe something the lefties should be thankful for if they'd not see these things as black and white purity tests. We're at nowhere near the level of protest or social unrest we saw even in 2020, never mind 1968! So Bernie can shut up!

The Democratic party put on a great convention in 2020- virtually, this one in person will be better and I'd bet big money will have no significant protest disruption. I'd also bet it will feature a massive surprise like a GW Bush endorsement or Cindy McCain speech, etc. It will occur after Trump and the Republicans embarrass themselves and scare the living shit out of suburban women at their fiasco.

Biden himself is a great retail politician and more importantly, has always had brilliant people running his campaigns. Look how close 2020 wound up being compared to the polls. When you look at the numbers, they knew EXACTLY where to get the votes and how to turn them out.

Polls just show trends, nothing to get wrapped up in unless they're both consistently bad and that trouble continues uninterrupted through Labor Day or so. Biden had a bad stretch from fall 2023 to about the State of the Union AKA when no one gave a shit or was paying much attention.

Polls that far out in 1980 and 1992 showed Carter and Bush 41 winning 2nd terms quite easily! Even early 2020, pre-Biden in South Carolina, was looking good for Trump. He rallied his base after his first impeachment and Bernie looked like he had lots of traction. I had visions of not even watching the returns in November it would've been so bad!

Haha I know. I was joking.

PS. Good post though

 

[BEAL]

Again; for Donald Trump??? The party could have purged him so many many times. But they can’t quit him

Tho me thinks it’s complete fear of their own voters / MAGA that keeps them debasing themselves

 

[BEAL]

is there a specific year that Aaron Rodgers broke his brain ??

 

[DaveC]

i think it was right around the time that he guest-hosted Jeopardy that he decided his shit doesn't stink.

 

[MrsSpringsteen]

And look, it's another goofy football player. Plus he adds in the Handmaid's Tale angle too. Being a woman in that graduation class and having to listen to that insulting crap, I can't imagine.

Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker rails against Pride month, working women in commencement speech

Kansas City Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker railed against Pride month, working women, President Biden’s leadership during the COVID-19 pandemic and abortion during a commencement address at Benedictine College last weekend.

apnews.com

 

[U2387]

Haha I know. I was joking.

PS. Good post though

Hahahahaha! Some detector of mine was broken.

Either way, thank you! And I hope it provided some reassurance to someone reading.

 

[Hewson]

is there a specific year that Aaron Rodgers broke his brain ??

1983

 

[BEAL]

And look, it's another goofy football player. Plus he adds in the Handmaid's Tale angle too. Being a woman in that graduation class and having to listen to that insulting crap, I can't imagine.

Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker rails against Pride month, working women in commencement speech

Kansas City Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker railed against Pride month, working women, President Biden’s leadership during the COVID-19 pandemic and abortion during a commencement address at Benedictine College last weekend.

apnews.com

I would imagine being in the Midwest allows him to speak openly like this. He should be able to anywhere of course, but his view may not have much of a backlash in KC vs say, a coastal elite city.

The Bosa’s are MAGA but i don’t think I’ve ever heard a peep of politics from either of them.

This also kinda makes me wonder more about Kapernick….the dude took a knee for racial injustice. Never said a bad word about anyone. Banned from the league.

Say gays are the root of evil and women should be proud to pump out babies and work in kitchen…

 

[BEAL]

1983

I find the Butkers 1800s views of society much easier to stomach than Rodgers smug intellectual condemnation of all things.

The guy who reads an listens to a YouTube talk for 90 mins now understands the inner workings of

Viruses
Human anatomy
Consciousness
Technology
Russian history

its clear the psychedelics he takes which is supposed to open one’s mind….clearly doesn’t open the part where humility and compassion reside

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

Here's why these polls are horse shit.

Nevada.

Poll Conducted by Emerson 2 weeks ago
Trump 45
Biden 44
Unsure 11

Poll Conducted by NY Times this week
Trump 50
Biden 38

 

[BEAL]

Maybe people think Trump just needs a second chance….

Agree the polls really seem to be shit. Is there an alternative tool to measure that would provide better , more accurate analysis ? Cause they seem to be worthless now

 

[MrsSpringsteen]

I would imagine being in the Midwest allows him to speak openly like this. He should be able to anywhere of course, but his view may not have much of a backlash in KC vs say, a coastal elite city.

The Bosa’s are MAGA but i don’t think I’ve ever heard a peep of politics from either of them.

This also kinda makes me wonder more about Kapernick….the dude took a knee for racial injustice. Never said a bad word about anyone. Banned from the league.

Say gays are the root of evil and women should be proud to pump out babies and work in kitchen…

Well as a woman I don't find it easier to stomach at all. It's misogyny. Plus his homophobic views, hateful as a self proclaimed Christian. He was speaking at some sort of Catholic university. All of it and other reasons are why I left the Catholic church. Still believe in God but not in misogyny, hate, or their hypocrisy.

Don't know if Rodgers is a misogynist or religious in any way. I just think he's a giant egomaniac who thinks he's an expert about anything and everything just because he thinks so.

Yes NFL and Kaepernick, it's all the usual NFL double standards.

 

[mikal]

The newest NYT poll is the absolute worst:

Trump - 100
Biden - 0

 

[MrsSpringsteen]

Trump, Biden agree to June 27, Sept. 10 debates in campaign schedule shakeup

President Biden and former President Donald Trump tentatively agreed Wednesday to face off in two summer debates months before the Nov. 5 election, upending the traditional campaign calendar.

nypost.com

 

[BEAL]

Well as a woman I don't find it easier to stomach at all. It's misogyny. Plus his homophobic views, hateful as a self proclaimed Christian. He was speaking at some sort of Catholic university. All of it and other reasons are why I left the Catholic church. Still believe in God but not in misogyny, hate, or their hypocrisy.

Don't know if Rodgers is a misogynist or religious in any way. I just think he's a giant egomaniac who thinks he's an expert about anything and everything just because he thinks so.

Yes NFL and Kaepernick, it's all the usual NFL double standards.

I think Harrison's views are horrible. My point being he isn't hiding them, he owns them. Rodgers seems to be the type that he'll just change his opinion based on whatever he hears and then believes he's the authority cause he's rich and did his research.

 

[mikal]

Trump, Biden agree to June 27, Sept. 10 debates in campaign schedule shakeup

President Biden and former President Donald Trump tentatively agreed Wednesday to face off in two summer debates months before the Nov. 5 election, upending the traditional campaign calendar.

nypost.com

Trump should be a convicted felon by then. I hope Biden calls him a felon repeatedly. By the September date, Trump could be in prison though. Wonder how they'd go about doing that debate.

 

[Hewson]

Trump should be a convicted felon by then. I hope Biden calls him a felon repeatedly. By the September date, Trump could be in prison though. Wonder how they'd go about doing that debate.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

I would imagine being in the Midwest allows him to speak openly like this. He should be able to anywhere of course, but his view may not have much of a backlash in KC vs say, a coastal elite city.

The Bosa’s are MAGA but i don’t think I’ve ever heard a peep of politics from either of them.

This also kinda makes me wonder more about Kapernick….the dude took a knee for racial injustice. Never said a bad word about anyone. Banned from the league.

Say gays are the root of evil and women should be proud to pump out babies and work in kitchen…

for accuracy's sake here - Kaepernick was never banned from the NFL.

you want to say he was black balled? ok, maybe you have a case. but he also had a workout set up with multiple teams in attendance that he bailed on, then rescheduled at another field an hour away... so there was obviously some intent there.

alas... butker's a douche. i imagine the NFL will fine him, and then the fine will be rescinded because of "religion" or some other excuse for being hateful.

 

[MrsSpringsteen]

Trump should be a convicted felon by then. I hope Biden calls him a felon repeatedly. By the September date, Trump could be in prison though. Wonder how they'd go about doing that debate.

I hate to say it but I don't believe he will ever be a convicted felon or go to prison.

 

[BEAL]

for accuracy's sake here - Kaepernick was never banned from the NFL.

you want to say he was black balled? ok, maybe you have a case. but he also had a workout set up with multiple teams in attendance that he bailed on, then rescheduled at another field an hour away... so there was obviously some intent there.

alas... butker's a douche. i imagine the NFL will fine him, and then the fine will be rescinded because of "religion" or some other excuse for being hateful.

Sorry, incorrect word. He was shunned and basically forced out despite getting a few tryouts. Considering how shitty of QB play teams have in the NFL, it was definitely a coordinated effort to keep him from getting a second chance.

Though it would have brought a shit storm of coverage had any team signed him

 

[mikal]

I hate to say it but I don't believe he will ever be a convicted felon or go to prison.

You think he’s going to win his current trial?

 

[BEAL]

Hard to predict the human mind. It sounds like the case is going well for the prosecution. But gotta get everyone on jury to agree…

I think it’s likely he’s convicted. Don’t believe he’ll serve any time behind bars because of his unique status. He’ll also appeal and if Bannon can stay out of prison for what seems like years on appeal, they’ll give Trump the same

 

[MrsSpringsteen]

You think he’s going to win his current trial?

I haven't followed it, too busy with two jobs and life stuff.

But it depends upon the credibility of Stormy and Michael Cohen. They're the ones put on trial really, not so much Trump. That's the way it always goes.

The bottom line is that I always feel that way because he literally gets away with everything. Teflon Don murdering on Fifth Avenue.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

Sorry, incorrect word. He was shunned and basically forced out despite getting a few tryouts. Considering how shitty of QB play teams have in the NFL, it was definitely a coordinated effort to keep him from getting a second chance.

Though it would have brought a shit storm of coverage had any team signed him

Well... his last two seasons were inconsistent and injury plagued.

I think it was more about teams not wanting to deal with the circus for an unsure thing vs. any sort of coordinated, league wide conspiracy.

 

[Hewson]

You think he’s going to win his current trial?

He won't "win" it as in being found not guilty.
But a hung jury is a very likely probability.
You only need 1 of 12 to be a closet MAGA and vote not guilty regardless of evidence. My guess is there are at least 3 of them on the panel.

 

[mikal]

He won't "win" it as in being found not guilty.
But a hung jury is a very likely probability.
You only need 1 of 12 to be a closet MAGA and vote not guilty regardless of evidence. My guess is there are at least 3 of them on the panel.

I certainly understand those fears. But I would actually say that scenario (closet MAGA jurors) is probably the least likely scenario. The prosecutors for sure planned for this, heavily vetted the jury panel, and are in a very democratic area. If anything, I actually think Michael Cohen wasn’t the best witness based on all of his public comments. But I do think he will be convicted. Obviously the sentencing is more complicated, but I believe he will be a convicted felon soon.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

i've been on one jury that actually went to trial. the dude was guilty as sin. was accused of stealing a guy's wallet, and the wallet was found on his person. and there were witnesses.

it ended in a hung jury because one douche refused to convict.

so i'm not anticipating anything, and our justice system is dumb - and it's dumb for the same reason that our elections are dumb. because the people are dumb.

 

[MrsSpringsteen]

 

[MrsSpringsteen]

NOTHING TERRIBLE HAPPENED